Do Japanese wholesale companies plan to spend more on software in FY2026?
SHORT ANSWER
- Medium-sized and small companies do. In the Tankan (September 2026 survey), FY2026 software investment plans are +10.9% for medium-sized, +22.5% for small and −15.8% for large enterprises, compared with FY2025 actual.
- Actual results, however, have come in below plans. In 11 fiscal years between FY2010 and FY2024 (years spanning a survey sample revision excluded), the median of (actual ÷ September plan) − 1 was −12.2% for medium-sized and −9.1% for small enterprises.
- For medium-sized enterprises, actual results fell below the plan in all 11 years compared.
The numbers
| Size | FY2025 actual (¥ billion) | FY2026 plan (¥ billion) | Plan vs FY2025 actual | Past median of (actual ÷ plan − 1) | Years actual fell below plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large enterprises | 285.6 | 240.5 | −15.8% | −3.9% | 9 of 11 years |
| Medium-sized enterprises | 91.2 | 101.1 | +10.9% | −12.2% | 11 of 11 years |
| Small enterprises | 61.2 | 75.0 | +22.5% | −9.1% | 8 of 11 years |
Software investment, wholesale trade. The plan is from the September survey.
How to read it
The fiscal year runs from April to the following March (FY2026 = April 2026 to March 2027). Large enterprises have capital of ¥1 billion or more, medium-sized ¥100 million to under ¥1 billion, and small ¥20 million to under ¥100 million. Plans are as of the September survey and change during the year.
What this data can't tell you
- What FY2026 actual results will be. The past gap is a tendency, not a forecast for this year.
- Anything about companies with capital under ¥20 million, which the Tankan does not cover.
- How plans compared with results in fiscal years that span a revision of the survey sample (FY2014, FY2017, FY2021, FY2023 and FY2025). These years were excluded from the past-gap calculation.
The full report adds how plans changed in a second survey (the Business Outlook Survey), the trend in actual capital investment, and aggregates for listed companies.
Go further with the full report
Japan Wholesale Trade Brief (October 2026)
Market size, IT investment and labor shortage in Japanese wholesale trade, by company size, from official statistics.
Sources
Bank of Japan, Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan (Tankan), annual projections (software investment), compiled by Shokimap. Tankan figures are used following consultation with the Bank of Japan on commercial use. This page uses the API provided by the "Bank of Japan Time-Series Data Search." The Bank of Japan does not guarantee the content of the service.